On Incentives
When people behave in ways that seem odd or incomprehensible, looking at their incentives reveals why.
Dear Friends,
It’s been a week of reconnecting with family and exploring history in Virginia as we approach Independence Day near the home of the man who wrote the Declaration of Independence. Monticello, for those who have never been, is a fascinating window into the life and mind of Thomas Jefferson. He was incredibly curious and remarkably spendthrift, turning his home into a library, museum, agricultural research station, and architectural capstone project.
Lots of other stuff has happened over this last week, some of which seems puzzling. Taking a page from the late Jefferson, we can apply observation of evidence with our application of reason to solve the puzzle. Perhaps that scientific bent helped Jefferson in navigating even more fraught politics at the time of the founding of our republic, nearly 250 years ago.
The political press and pundits have been vocal in calling for President Joe Biden to drop out of the race after a poor debate performance on CNN last Friday. This debate was an oddity already, with both Trump and Biden not yet officially their party’s nominees, but with enough primary elections already decided that they will be their party’s nominee absent death, disqualification, or withdrawal.
Trump lied a lot, Biden didn’t do much to shut him up, and the moderators were happy to let the thing play out for ratings.
The morning after the debate, there were columns in the New York Times from multiple pundits calling for Biden to drop out of the race, similar to LBJ dropping out of the 1968 race (though many months later in the election year). Talking heads on television, including Joe Scarborough on MSNBC, were openly freaking out about Biden’s frailty and inability to stay in the race until November.
After the weekend, on Monday, the Supreme Court created an absolute immunity for the President that has no history in the Constitution or the founding documents. The decision was designed to protect Donald Trump from facing the same criminal law that every other American would face if they committed a crime. Richard Nixon’s shameful line, “When the President does it, it’s not illegal,” was made into law by John Roberts and four of his colleagues on the bench.
The news about that momentous decision lasted until Tuesday, at which point the media went back into overdrive speculating about which hypothetical Democrat could take Joe Biden’s place with just four months to go until election day.
Why is the media so eager for Biden to drop out?
Incentives.
Trump sold a lot of papers and TV ads.
Media companies were doing great during the Trump administration, between the leaks from disgruntled staffers, to the book deals for reporters to collate and publish the notes they had that didn’t make it into stories at the time.
When Biden got into the race in 2019, the media went after him for being too old, too boring, too out of touch. Even after he secured the nomination in South Carolina and went on to win the general election, it was still Trump driving the sale of papers and TV ads. January 6th, 2021 and the aftermath has been great for political reporters, legal reporters, and pundits to wring their hands about dramatic and unexpected events.
Biden is boring and old. Boring and old guys compensate by hiring competent staffers and managing their time to prioritize what’s most important. They are acutely aware of the clock running out of time and they have the focus to not waste that time putting on a show that will sell a lot of papers and TV ads.
If they want juicy stories about something new and drammatic, not old and boring, they aren’t going to get them out of Joe Biden. Because Biden doesn’t have either the time or inclination to dance for Brian Stetler or Jake Tapper or Maggie Haberman to sell more papers or TV ads.
Trump is a reliable source for reporters and has been for his entire life. He may throw tantrums and fight with reporters, but he’s still always there to give them a story.
Biden doesn’t trust reporters who tried to kneecap his campaign in 2020 and seem to be trying to do it again in 2024. This ends up with those reporters talking amongst themselves and with anyone who has an axe to grind against Biden.1
Most Americans don’t support a President having immunity for crimes committed while President. The exception are Republicans who support a man who has already been convicted of felonies from before his election win in 2016 and is being prosecuted for felonies committed after his election loss in 2020.
With the Trump v. U.S. decision, the upcoming election will be a referendum on whether Americans want a king or not, just like the post-2022 elections have been a referendum on whether Americans supported the overturning or Roe v. Wade.
Rematches are boring. Usually the same side wins a rematch as won the first contest. Boring contests don’t sell a lot of papers and TV ads, so the media has an incentive to make a boring contest exciting by making the outcome less predictable. The loser of the first contest also has an incentive to make a boring contest exciting by making the outcome less predictable.
When Trump’s incentives and the media’s incentives align, it creates phenomenal pressure to give them the exciting contest they want.
A smart campaign won’t give in to that pressure and won’t take advice from those who have different incentives.
In four months, voters will choose who they want to lead the United States as it reaches the 250th anniversary of our revolution against a king the tyranny of a man who was above the law.
They will probably choose the boring option over the kind of excitement that sells a lot of papers and TV ads.
Yours truly,
Nick
P.S. There’s lots of other crazy stuff happening in the world, but this is a good week to spend time with your family and friends celebrating our country’s independence.
After decades in politics, there are a lot of people with axes to grind against Biden.