On January 6th
Reflections on the failed attempt to overturn the 2020 election and the evolving public perception from both supporters and opponents of democracy.
Dear Friends,
One of the great joys of living in Manchester, New Hampshire, is that our children can take ski lessons at McIntyre Ski Area, which is less than a mile from the front door of my house. During the school year, kids from Manchester and the surrounding towns come into town in busses and cars so their kids can learn the basics of skiing or snowboarding.
This is a rare kind of societal privilege. Winter sports are equipment intensive, so the people who can afford to engage in them tend to be from the upper classes in society. Access to those opportunities at a reasonable cost in a working class city like Manchester is one of the hidden advantages of living here. When we lived in Phoenix, going skiing required hours of driving or air travel. Places all have different advantages.
But I digress.
On January 6, 2021, I was getting the kids ready to go to ski lessons, but we had the certification of the election on the television. We watched live as the protesters broke through the first barriers, but then it was time to go and chaperone the kids.
A week later, also right before ski lessons, the television was showing impeachment proceedings for the second impeachment of Donald Trump.
This January 6, we are going into a Presidential election year. Donald Trump is on the ballot. Joe Biden is not on the ballot in New Hampshire, for Democratic National Committee reasons, but he’s on the ballot everywhere else. The Libertarian Party will have a Presidential candidate on the ballot in most states, though it may be difficult to get all 50 states this year because the party doesn’t have the money or manpower that it used to after new leadership came in back in May of 2022. Various other candidates will be on the ballot in some handful of states, but it’s hard to say which will last and which will flame out. See, e.g. Ron DeSantis, Dave Smith, or Dean Phillips.
A rematch between Trump and Biden presents the best opportunity for the Libertarian Presidential nominee in my lifetime. Two known opponents who have high negatives and are already familiar to the voters against a younger, fresher candidate? The advantages are obvious and create the first real possibility for an outright Libertarian presidential victory. Lincoln territory as far as political realignment.
Mark Cuban could win the 2024 Presidential election as a Libertarian nominee on all fifty state ballots.
The real opportunity in this upcoming election is that Americans have split into two groups: values voters and tribal voters.
To understand what I mean, take the time to watch President Biden’s speech from yesterday at Valley Forge, Pennsylvania. The speech itself is about half an hour long, and worth your time.
“America made a vow, never again would we bow down to a King” -Joe Biden
If you listen to the rhetoric, you’ll note the appeals to our founding, to the Declaration of Independence, to liberty. The Democratic Party has wised up to the need to speak libertarian in order to appeal to independent voters. They are sending clearer signals to the voters to win those voters who are not aligned with any political party.
There’s a second video I’d like you to watch, just released this morning after a records request by NBC News. It shows GOP Congressman Troy Nehls admonishing MAGA rioters at the barricaded door to House chamber.
“You ought to be ashamed of yourself!” Nehls says.
“We’re coming in one way or another!” one rioter says.
"I’ve been in law enforcement in Texas for 30 years, and I’ve never had people act this way," Nehls says. "I’m ashamed!"
Watching Representative Nehls argue with Trump supporters is a sharp contrast from what he says today about the same events. Now he takes the side of the people on the other side of that door on January 6, 2021.
Tribal voters want their team to win (or the other team to lose) so badly that they will cheat and condone cheating to achieve their goals. They make winning their highest priority.
Values voters believe that the law and the rules in the United States should apply equally to everyone, regardless of what tribe you belong to, including their own. They make integrity their highest priority.
The candidates who will win in 2024 will be the ones who have integrity and appeals to the values voters. Tribal voters are a minority in the United States and will lose more frequently as we move forward as a country.
Yours truly,
Nick
P.S. My friend, and first ever Libertarian Member of Congress, Justin Amash, just announced he’s changing the format of his Substack. Mine has been mostly essays written in the style of a letter to a friend, but if you would like to see more of something else, drop me a line.