On Political Parties

What are they good for, what makes them good, and why half of Americans reject them.

Dear Friends,

Last Wednesday morning, I drove over to St. Anselm’s College to appear on MSNBC’s Morning Joe to discuss the 2024 Presidential election, the possibilities for a Libertarian Presidential candidate, and the New Hampshire Republican primary race. If you didn’t see it when it first aired, you can watch it on YouTube.

My prediction was that Nikki Haley would come in second in New Hampshire’s primary on January 23rd and then run into a wall in South Carolina, because she promised to pardon Trump, which is a non-starter for an independent voter who wants Trump to be accountable if he is convicted. That prediction seems to be proving correct, though there is an all-out blitz to try to convince independent voters to pull a Republican ballot to keep the Haley campaign alive.

The problem Haley has is that a political party molds itself around it’s highest profile leaders and candidates. With exit polls out of Iowa’s caucus showing that the vast majority of Republican primary voters don’t even believe that Trump lost the election in 2020, it’s clear that there was never a chance for a primary winner other than a man considered to be the incumbent President by his loyal followers and supermajority of Republican primary voters.

Everyone who disliked Trump, including people like Bill Weld (who briefly ran against Trump in the 2020 GOP primary) and Justin Amash (who voted for impeachment and also left the Republican party to join the Libertarian Party while still in Congress), has either left or been driven out of the Republican party. Chris Christie tried to run a direct campaign against Trump and ended up suspending his campaign before the Iowa caucuses even happened.

A political party is made up of those people who show up.

When the socially liberal business Republicans were made to feel unwelcome by the culture warriors of MAGA, they stopped showing up.

When the socially conservative religious Republicans were made to feel unwelcome by Trump’s rejection of the very concepts of integrity and the rule of law, they stopped showing up.

When the independent and libertarian voters who were just in the Republican party to vote in the primaries were attacked and ridiculed by MAGA activists for their defense of civil liberties, they stopped showing up.

Most people will leave when they’re made to feel unwelcome. A departure of a significant number of members can fundamentally change the character of an organization, often quickly and in ways that are shocking to long-time members.

The Republican Party of Michigan is embroiled in an internal fight over who controls the state party. Their recent state convention included fistfights among activists. Donations are down and kooky candidates losing badly in elections are up. The extremism attracts people with a lot of time on their hands, but not people with money and connections. They stay far away, something that is reflected in the party’s financial woes.

When political parties cease to be useful, they collapse.

An extremist party without any money from major donors and a reputation for mismanagement and corruption will not be effective in getting candidates to run for office and getting those candidates elected.

Candidates who want to run for office are well advised to maximize their chances of being elected by running with the political party most likely to win the election they are running in. There are exceptions to this general rule, usually when the incumbent is in that political party and not susceptible to a primary challenge or there is a particular personal reason a candidate wants to avoid association with a particular political party. But for the most part, candidates who want to win should rely on partisan demographics as the biggest consideration in planning a campaign.

What is weird about our present moment is that there are places in the country where winning an election makes being in the Republican party nearly mandatory, but the national identity of the Republican party is intimately tied to the former President who unsuccessfully tried to hold on to power, something rejected by a vast majority of independent voters. This leaves those candidates walking a line where they are MAGA enough to win a GOP primary, but not so MAGA that they will lose a general election.

That line has been disappearing in special elections around the country, due in no small part to the backlash against the Dobbs decision that the Republicans took so much credit for. Districts are seeing 15 point swings against Republicans and there is no sign the trend is stopping.

The Republican party will likely cease to be a viable national political party after the 2024 election. There will be regions where it remains strong, but it will cease to be a serious contender for Presidential elections, which will create an opening for a national political party to counterbalance the Democratic Party which is taking full advantage of the post-Dobbs wind in their sails.

That political party will need to be radically centrist. It will need to be pro-choice, as bodily autonomy is hugely popular with voters. It will need to be pro-Ukraine, as rejecting Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine is hugely popular with voters. It will need to be for ending the failed war on drugs, as cannabis legalization and drug decriminalization are hugely popular with voters. Beyond those major points, it needs to be a party that takes a “live and let live” approach to people’s personal choices.

Peaceful self-determination is what the United States was founded to ensure for all who live under its laws. A political party that holds peaceful self-determination as its highest priority, that respects the rule of law that has allowed our American experiment to become the greatest nation in human history, that welcomes people from all backgrounds who share the values of individual liberty and personal responsibility.

That kind of political party can bring together those people who are currently politically homeless.

And that’s what political parties are for.

Less than 25% of the country is enthusiastic about Donald Trump. Less than 25% of the country is enthusiastic about Joe Biden. Half of the country has rejected both of their political parties, even if they still sometimes vote for some of their candidates.

This is an opportunity for a political party with vision and leadership, that recognizes the path available for a party that creates a big tent around the top three issues that aren’t being served by either the Republicans or the Democrats.

Some group will seize that opportunity and America will go through another political realignment.

Who do you think it will be?

Yours truly,
Nick